VOTE NOW: will the iPhone be a hit or miss?!

[Just want to vote?..then scroll down till you see the blue voting box, select your answer and hit "vote now". Monday email readers, you need to click on the title at the top of the post and got to the blog. Otherwise, read on...]

 

Apple's iPhone has already generated  millions of colums inches, and generates 38 700 000 104 000 000 hits when you type it into Google, months before it even comes out. Apple-aholics like me are foaming at the mouth in anticipation.

Seth Godin has come out and said it will be a big hit, predicting it will shift 2 million units in 2007, and more in 2008. Godin suggests he's being brave in this predicition, but he's not really; this is actually a very conservative estimate. The Motorolla Razr sold 50 million units in the first 2 years of launch...and iPod unit sales in 2006 were c. 40 million. Apple themselves are forecasting 10 million units for the year to Sept. 2008.

But not everyone is a fan by any means. Laura Ries is a big extension hater, and thinks that people will continue to want specific, separate products for different usage i.e. the future is everyone having a Blackberry, mobile phone and iPod, and not all in one.

Well, you can probably guess what I think: that it'll fly off the shelves faster than they can be filled. Forget what is practical/useful...this thing is so damn sexy, I have to have it. Now. Ries refers to the Newton as a previous Apple attempt at a new multi-function gizzmo that failed (on the left), but there is no comparison for me. The Newton was cluncky and ahead of its time. The industrial design genius of Joanathan Ive, and the superbly simple interface make the iPhone a must-have piece of kit.

But what do you think? Let's vote...click below to say what you think.And in Sep 08 we'll see who got it right!

Comments

[Paul]

Laura Ries analysis is focused on a red herring. She believes the the iPhone is a phone (which it isn't), and that because it's a phone with an iPod and email and internet browsing capability, it's a convergent device. Since most convergent devices fail in the market, she feels the iPhone will fail.

Apart from the fallacy of cause and effect, she is also mistaken in calling the iPhone a convergent device. The software is so seamless and elegant that the functions are no longer separate. Is a TV the convergence of radio and pictures? If so, is it unsuccessful? Or, are the two features so thoroughly synthesized that you view a TV as a singular and distinct product?

I think the key is to avoid getting hung up on labels, and on false premises to conduct analysis, and just look at the thing for what it is. It will be highly disruptive in the market, moreso than the iPod. Steve's forecast of 10 million units is a minimum, not a target or a stretch goal. I would be very surprised if the iPhone doesn't exceed 20 million units by end of 2008.

See my analysis here:
http://thewaythingsare.typepad.com/antimarketer/2007/06/what-is-steve-j.html

[me]

it's a mobile phone with style but without good features for this price... we also pay for the name of apple. A mobile phone for 600€ with a 2 mpx cam is too expensive. I bought the nokia n95 for 460€ and it's very nice. i got a 2gb memory card and that's all i need. so the iphone got a very nice design, but thats not everything what a mobile phone needs. i think it is a good mobile phone but really too expensive.

[Dennis Matthew Dewey]

It's probably going to be a big success. The naysayers are focusing too much on the details.

[Fergus]

I'd say "miss"... there are just too many other phones already doing this sort of stuff and many of them look just as sexy.